One hundred and seventy-four days remain until the United States’ midterm elections (421 until the next presidential election, but who’s counting) — which means there’s still time to “evolve” how polling is conducted.
The 2016 presidential election wasn’t polling’s shining moment
, with many post-mortems
pointing to opinion polls misleading election forecasters and underestimating now-President Trump’s support. It didn’t help that some polls were tied to news organizations that don’t really have the resources
anymore to support this work — at least doing this work well. There’s no perfect poll aside from (maybe) the ballot itself, but the polling system — both conducted by the media
and reported on in the media
— has faced critics since long before November 8, 2016.
These issues contributed to the Associated Press’
and Fox News’ departure from the Election Day polling data
shared by the major networks last year. But now the wire Continue reading "Exiting the exit poll: The AP’s new plan for surveying voters after a not-so-hot 2016"
A new poll found that Americans think fired FBI director James Comey
is “more believable” than President Donald Trump
, and support the expansion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s
By a 16-point margin, 48-32 percent, Americans find Comey more believable than Trump, according to an ABC News-Washington Post poll
. The poll comes as Comey embarks on a press tour for his bombshell book revealing the gritty details of his ouster from the FBI by Trump, at the dawn of the Russia investigation.
And while Comey’s personal favorability rating is weak (30% favorable, 32% unfavorable), Americans disapprove of Trump’s decision to fire Comey by a 14-point margin, 47-33.
Meanwhile, Mueller — who’s leading the investigation into the Trump campaign’s Russia ties — receives majority support from Americans to expand his investigation into the president’s business activities. That’s worth remembering the next time a pundit declares ‘the American people want to Continue reading "New Poll Reveals Who Americans Believe More: Trump or Comey"
News organizations have spent a lot of time talking to their readers; these days, they’re getting a little bit better at listening. Increased adoption of tools like Hearken and GroundSource
over the past two years have shown that more newsrooms understand how direct feedback from readers can help drive their coverage.
has also benefited from this shift in outlook. The company, which develops polling tools that publishers can embed in their articles, recently raised €3 million ($2.7 million) both to build its product and to fund its expansion into the U.S., where it already has a small foothold. In addition to landing most of the top news organizations in Germany, Opinary has attracted the likes of The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Times, and The Independent in the U.K. and Time, Fortune, Forbes, HuffPost, NBC, and NPR in the U.S. Over 60 media companies
Continue reading "Opinary is building new tools to help news orgs use polls to inform their coverage"
“If you want the public’s opinion on anything — what to name your dog, who will win tonight’s game, which election issue people care most about — there’s no better place to get answers than on Twitter.”
This is how Twitter introduces
its “Twitter Polls” feature. Twitter polls might be useful for entertainment and business
, but when it comes to politics, it’s more complicated: Twitter polls are not scientific; they are not systematically conducted and therefore cannot represent public opinion. Yet surprisingly, many individuals – ordinary citizens, public officials and political leaders – treat Twitter polls as valid representation of public opinion. Whether they fail to recognize its unscientific nature or intentionally use it as a pseudo-scientific platform for promoting their views, the result is increased cacophony, misinformation and polarization in social media and beyond. Given these problems, Twitter should update its design by adding an interactive warning
Continue reading "Why Twitter Polls Should Have a Warning Label"
Last month, President Donald Trump took to Twitter
to tout a Rasmussen poll that showed he had a 46% approval rating. Immediately, the president was mocked for hyping up a survey that showed that the majority of Americans disapproved of the job he was doing. (It should also be noted that the Rasmussen poll was an outlier at the time, with most surveys showing Trump’s approval numbers in the 30s.)
Well, he was back at it today.
With a bevy of new polls
showing Trump’s approval rating as low as 32%
, POTUS jumped on one from Morning Consult/Politico
that came out a few days ago.
Yes, he tweeted out a poll that has his approval rating at 45% (disapproval is at 51% in that survey) along with the caption “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Continue reading "Trump (Once Again) Tweets Out Poll Showing Most Americans Disapprove of His Job Performance"
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump took to Twitter
to tout a Rasmussen poll that showed that the majority of Americans disapproved of him. The way Trump framed it, however, was to indicate that the mainstream media was lying by saying his poll numbers were in the 30s. Instead, Rasmussen having him at 46% was fair because they were “one of the most accurate polls” and that “some people” think his job approval numbers “could be in the 50s.”
Now, since boasting about a poll that still finds him underwater, Rasmussen has dropped to 42% and RealClearPolitics has his average
at 38.4% with only one other recent poll above 40%. (HuffPost Pollster has his average
So, one wonders, why exactly does Trump think his poll numbers could be in the 50s and that it is fake news that they’re in the 30s? According to Continue reading "White House Aides Reportedly Showing Trump Selective Polls ‘To Make Him Feel Good’"
President Donald Trump
tweeted out a Rasmussen poll early Tuesday morning showing his approval rating at 46 per cent, calling it “[one] of the most accurate polls”:
Trump added that the “#FakeNews likes to say” his approval rating is in the 30s, but that “[they] are wrong,” and “[some] people think numbers could be in the 50’s.”
The Rasmussen poll Trump touted in his tweet, while showing his approval rating to be higher than most other polls, still doesn’t look great for the president. While 46% of voters approve of his performance, 53% disapprove.
“The latest figures include 30% who Strongly Continue reading "Trump Touts Poll Showing Majority of Americans Disapprove of His Performance"